In most north European countries more people die in the four months from December to March than during the rest of the year.
There were 2,704 “excess” deaths in Scotland during the winter of 2024/25.
Contributing factors include low income, inefficient heating systems, external temperature fluctuations, and excessive dampness and mould growth associated with poor housing stock.
In Scotland there are long and damp winters, which are worse for health than dry Scandinavian winters. Factors affecting excess winter mortality are varied and complex, but there is a strong relationship between thermal standards in housing and excess winter deaths.
The UK has much higher winter deaths rates than other countries with more severe winter climates, implying that it is not outdoor exposure to cold that is the key determinant. Northern Finland, where winter temperatures regularly drop to -20°C, has a significantly lower rate of excess winter deaths than the UK. However, Finnish buildings have historically had much higher levels of insulation and whole house central heating has been the norm for years.
It is generally accepted that the number of excess winter deaths could be reduced if everyone could be kept warm in their homes during the winter months.
Statistics on increased winter mortality
The Increased Winter Mortality (Excess Winter Deaths) figure for Scotland in 2024/25 was 2,704.
Increased Winter Mortality or Excess Winter Deaths are recorded by the National Records of Scotland (NRS).
There is no single cause of ‘additional’ deaths in winter. Very few are caused by hypothermia. Most are from respiratory and circulatory diseases such as pneumonia, coronary heart disease and stroke. In only a small proportion of deaths is influenza recorded as the underlying cause.
The seasonal increase in mortality in the winter has been defined as the difference between the number of deaths in the four ‘winter’ months (December to March) and the average of the numbers of deaths in the two four month periods which precede winter (August to November) and follow winter (April to July).
Statistics of the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter inform public debate and the development of government policy on matters such as the health of the elderly population, fuel poverty and whether there is a need to improve the housing stock in terms of central heating and thermal insulation.
Key documents:
The annual statistics are available here from the NRS. The increased winter mortality (Excess Winter Deaths) figure for Scotland in 2024/25 was 2,704.
The Occasional Paper (published in April 2002) on “The Raised Incidence of Winter Deaths” is here
Key facts:
- There were 22,272 deaths registered in Scotland in the four months of winter 2024/25 (December to March). Comparing this with the average for the two adjacent 4-month periods, the seasonal increase in mortality in winter 2024/25 was 2,704. This was 908 more than the corresponding value of 1,796 for the previous winter (2024/25).
- The long-term trend in the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter has clearly been downward, but it can fluctuate greatly from winter to winter. There have been unusually large figures in some years (including, latterly, 4,060 for winter 2014/15 and 4,810 for winter 2017/18, which was the largest value since winter 1999/2000). However, the height of the peaks has generally been falling.
A separate document, Increased Winter Mortality – Background Note, published in October 2010 (available on the NRS website), gives information about some of the medical causes of the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter, describes some research studies’ findings on factors that influence it, reports on a comparison of the figures for a number of European countries, mentions previous publications on this topic, and provides references to the sources of the material.
The main points to note are:
- high cold-related mortality is associated with low indoor temperatures, and with people not wearing appropriate clothing when outdoors in cold weather;
- increased winter mortality was at the same level in Scotland as the overall mean for the 14 European countries covered by a comparative study; and
- the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter is higher in countries with a warmer winter climate, probably because their homes tend to be poorly insulated and their populations tend not to dress well for cold weather